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Brian Amaral
Brian Amaral
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The Public Interest

TEA leaf? Hoffman bucks up the conservative troops

First published: November 10, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Last modified: November 10, 2012 at 3:46 pm

Read into this what you will.

Doug Hoffman, twice a Conservative Party congressional candidate in the north country, send an email to likeminded tea partiers on Thursday telling them not to give up. He links to an article by Bob Lonsberry, and adds some thoughts of his own.

Mr. Hoffman seriously considered getting into the race in 2012, but decided against it and supported Republican Matt Doheny. Mr. Doheny lost narrowly to Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh.

Here's Mr. Hoffman's missive:

I am not ready to give up, are you? However, this article does have a lot of truth in it and shows just how hard our battles will be going forward. I have been feeling the underlying points in this article increasingly during my four years of involvement in our political war to save our constitution and our founding principles. In the treatment of alcoholics, admitting the facts is the first step to the cure.

Yes, we are now the minority, not the silent majority. And it is my fault and everyone else that let this go on far too long. (I realize that many of you have been involved for much longer and I congratulate and thank you!) Shame on all of us who were complacent, complicit, apathetic and/or not involved in our local, state and federal political agenda and those of us who allowed the progressive, liberal cancer infestation grow and grow over the last 100 years.

We must persist if we are going to save America from this cancer ,save the America that we all know and love, the America that was once the greatest nation on earth and the America that once more can be. But only if we preserve the America that is the land of opportunity because of its constitutional protection of personal freedoms.

Remember that a citizen who is dependent on its government becomes a slave to that government. Also recall Benjamin Franklin when he said something to the effect that we don't have a democracy, we have a republic, but only if we can keep it. Once people realize that they can raid our treasury with their votes, a republic is self destructive by democracy (majority rules because the courts are weighted and we no longer have a balance of power). We are now there along with official wealth redistribution, which is the biggest sin against our personal freedoms, constitution and founding principles. They said it will only take one generation to destroy our Republic. Do we want to go down in history as that generation?

We need to continue the battles (I mean this in a political sense, not violence sense), not for us, but for our grandchildren and many more generations to come. If not us, then who will? If not now, then when? As in any war, it gets very lonely, discouraging and bleak in the mist of losing battles with no end or victory in sight. It is really the darkest just before the dawn. Certainly today is the darkest we have seen.

Pessimists give up and lose, optimists find a way and win. Let's all be optimistic and keep fighting and looking for the way to the ultimate victory. Are you optimistic, are you with me? If so, let's fight on!

Please pass this on.

Best regards,

Doug Hoffman

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Doheny pens farewell letter

First published: November 09, 2012 at 10:00 am
Last modified: November 09, 2012 at 10:58 am

Matt Doheny, who lost his second try at a seat in Congress on Tuesday to Democrat Bill Owens, sent a thank-you letter via email to supporters this morning.

It's a gracious, classy read. Here it is in full:

Brian,

The television ads have stopped. The signs are coming down. And the lights from the TV camera have been packed away. But there is one thing I still must do before this campaign officially comes to a close.

I need to thank you.

Thank you to the thousands upon thousands of people who I met on the campaign trail in this congressional district. Your passion for a positive change and a new direction in this country kept me going even in the toughest days.

Thank you to the hundreds of people who volunteered for this campaign. Whether you put a sign in your yard, wrote a letter to the editor of the newspaper, spent hours at a phonebank or going door-to-door, you made a didference. We didn't win - but this race was decidedly close. And that's all thanks to your hard work.

Thank you to the hundreds of people who gave money to this campaign. We cherished every donation - from $2 to $2,500 - because we knew it represented a personal sacrifice. You lived with a little less, so we could continue on. I am truly grateful for your support.

I was honored to take up the cause on behalf of all of us who wanted a smaller government, fewer taxes and a less adversarial relationship between our job creators and our government.

There were unanticipated national forces at work that ultimately helped my opponent. Even though our district was Republican on paper, President Obama won this district by a decisive six points. No Republican challenger in the entire nation won in a district that the president carried - and I was no exception. I'm not making excuses. A loss is a loss. And it's time for me to move on.

Mary and I are looking forward to stepping out of the spotlight and spending some much needed time together as newlyweds. It's time for that long-overdue honeymoon. But we'll return to the north country - and we hope to see you around.

One last time, before we close this chapter, I want to tell you again how much I truly appreciate your encouragement and support these past few years. I simply could not have done it without you. Thank you.

Matt Doheny

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In one map, how Doheny lost

First published: November 08, 2012 at 11:00 am
Last modified: November 08, 2012 at 11:41 am
This map, by shows a shift toward Barack Obama in seven out of 12 north country counties.

The attached map should help explain, in a demographic context, how Republican Matt Doheny lost the 21st Congressional District race.

Sure, there's a lot to be said about a low-key but successful campaign by Democratic Rep. Bill Owens (few doubters are saying "lackluster" today). And Mr. Doheny's campaign had its own litany of problems. But the map shows that several north country counties shifted toward President Obama versus their totals in 2008.

The map is based on stats by New York Public Interest Research Group stats wiz Bill Mahoney, who used New York Times data.

Five counties voted in lower percentages for Mr. Obama in 2012 than voted for Mr. Obama in 2012. That includes St. Lawrence, a majority Obama county that he still won big. But seven counties saw an uptick in Obama votes, including Jefferson and Lewis.

More on this in tomorrow's newspaper.

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-30-

First published: November 07, 2012 at 5:00 am
Last modified: November 07, 2012 at 5:24 pm

It's 2:22 a.m. on Wednesday morning, 21 hours after I started my workday, five hours since polls closed and about two years until they open up again.

I can think of no better time to say goodbye.

My tenure at the Watertown Daily Times is coming to an end on Friday. I'll still provide updates about the implications of last night's election, so my voice on this blog will not yet go silent. But sadly, for me, it soon will.

Thank you, loyal reader, for listening to my stories and forgiving my faults. I've learned a lot, and I have you to thank.

A special thanks, too, to the editors and sources who had to put up with me.

I won't be far. I'm going to write for nj.com, covering politics and business development in Middlesex County. If you'd like to get in touch, my email address is bamaral44@gmail.com.

It has been an immense pleasure.

-30-

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In unofficial returns, McGrath wins blog contest

First published: November 07, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Last modified: November 07, 2012 at 2:39 pm

Brian McGrath, a Lowville native who ran for state Assembly in 2010, won my contest to see who could predict the results of the 21st Congressional District election, according to unofficial results.

Before polls closed, Mr. McGrath issued the following prediction: Rep. Bill Owens, 50 percent, Republican Matt Doheny, 47 percent, and Green Party candidate Don Hassig, 2 percent.

Absentees still must be counted, but unofficial results have the tally at 50 percent Owens, 48 percent Doheny, 1.5 percent Hassig.

Congrats to Mr. McGrath, who wins a photograph of President Barack Obama, signed by me.

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Owens in line for leadership post on Ag

First published: November 07, 2012 at 10:00 am
Last modified: November 07, 2012 at 10:37 am

With his apparent victory last night and the departure of a few members in front of him, Democratic Rep. Bill Owens is in line for a leadership post on the Agriculture Committee.

He could be the ranking minority member of a subcommittee, potentially Conservation and Energy. Mr. Owens was first elected in 2009. He said he'd be happy with any slot he gets.

"I haven’t given that a lot of thought," Mr. Owens said. "I was so consumed by the activity of the last couple of months."

It's less clear whether he'll move up the leadership chain in the House Armed Services Committee, a much larger group of legislators.

When Congress gets back in session, one of the first major issues will be passing the farm bill.

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Owens defeats Doheny for 3rd term

First published: November 07, 2012 at 5:00 am
Last modified: November 07, 2012 at 2:08 am
JUSTIN SORENSEN
Republican Matt Doheny conceded his race Tuesday night.

U.S. Rep. William L. Owens has won a third term in Congress, defeating Republican Matthew A. Doheny, 50 to 48 percent, according to unofficial results Tuesday night.

At a campaign rally in Plattsburgh after all precincts had reported, Mr. Owens, a Plattsburgh Democrat, told raucous partygoers he would continue to fight for his constituents.

“It’s an honor to represent each of you in Congress,” Mr. Owens said.

Mr. Doheny, speaking to supporters at his election-night rally at the Italian-American Civic Association on Bellew Avenue, said he was leaving politics.

“I truly gave everything we had,” the Watertown resident said. “There’s nothing more we could have done.”

For Mr. Doheny, it was a loss at the ballot box and also a stunning personal defeat for a man accustomed to success. Winning a seat in Congress had been a nearly lifelong goal for Mr. Doheny when he was growing up on High Street in Alexandria Bay.

He had several built-in advantages: Outside groups far outspent Mr. Owens’s campaign on Mr. Doheny’s behalf, and Republicans far outnumbered Democrats in the district. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Owens campaign waged a relentless battle with soldiers marching to a singular drumbeat: Mr. Doheny is not of the north country. It was a particularly stinging accusation against a man friends said never fit in in New York City, where he made millions working for Wall Street firms in the 2000s.

In the end, his success became a liability, with Democrats labeling him “millionaire Matt Doheny.” He invested $3 million of his own money in his two congressional campaigns, in 2010 and 2012. He also flirted with running in 2009.

Donald L. Hassig, the Green Party candidate, received just shy of 2 percent of the vote.

There are still about 20,000 absentee ballots to be counted, but Mr. Doheny would have to win upward of 60 percent of those ballots, and he acknowledged that such an outcome was unlikely.

Mr. Owens thanked staff members and organized labor, which he said did a “tremendous job” in the heavily Republican district.

Mr. Owens continues to be an unlikely representative in a seat that was dominated by Republicans for generations. He has worked to maintain an independent, moderate image, and even after the results were tallied, he continued to do so in his victory speech.

“I hope (the election) causes us to come to rational compromise,” Mr. Owens said in his victory speech, which was broadcast on WWNY-TV.

He will be sworn in for a third time in January, but before that happens, Congress has much to do, including measures to stave off steep defense cuts and a tax increase on the middle class. With President Barack Obama’s victory, the lame-duck session will likely be more productive than it would have been if Republican Mitt Romney had won. Mr. Owens said he’d continue working for the middle class when Washington gets back to work.

Mr. Owens’s victory was buoyed by a strong showing in St. Lawrence County. He also kept it close in Jefferson and Lewis counties.

According to unofficial results, Mr. Doheny won Jefferson County 51 percent to 48 percent, with nearly all precincts reporting. Mr. Doheny also won Lewis County 52 percent to 47 percent. But Mr. Owens far eclipsed those margins in St. Lawrence County, winning 58 percent to 41 percent. Mr. Doheny trailed by 4,713 districtwide on election night. Mr. Owens defeated Mr. Doheny by 5,738 votes in St. Lawrence County.

On Tuesday night, Mr. Doheny said he will not run for elected office again, but left his event before speaking to reporters. Donald G.M. Coon III, the Jefferson County Republican Party chairman, said Mr. Doheny was right to concede the race, calling him a “gentleman.”

“We all knew it was going to be close,” Mr. Coon said. “It just didn’t trend our way.”

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TU: Judge signs court order

First published: November 06, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Last modified: November 06, 2012 at 5:38 pm

The Albany Times Union is reporting that a state Supreme Court judge has signed an order to impound ballots in the 21st Congressional District.

The move ensures that all ballots are treated equally in case of a contentious recanvass or further court cases between Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, and Republican Matt Doheny.

In other words: We could be here awhile.

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What happens if it's too close to call?

First published: November 06, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Last modified: November 06, 2012 at 2:33 pm

If we don't know the results of the election between Democratic Rep. Bill Owens and Republican Matt Doheny tonight or early tomorrow morning, we probably won't know it for another week and a half, at least.

As many as 24,199 absentee votes might have to be counted, and then there's an untold number of provisional or "affidavit" ballots to be tallied. If all 24,199 absentee ballots come in, turnout is 6 percent among active voters just for that form of voting.

What happens if the race is within 2,000 votes tonight? No call. We'll have to rely on the absentees and the recanvass.

Jefferson County will start counting absentees on Nov. 15; St. Lawrence County will start counting on Nov. 16. Those are two of the jump-ball counties. Adding Lewis into the mix, Mr. Owens leads by 3 percentage points, according to the most recent Siena poll.

So, provided that the election is close, it's not just a long night that we have to worry about.

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Absentees in NY21: 19,300 and counting

First published: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 am
Last modified: November 06, 2012 at 12:35 pm
BRIAN AMARAL
The scene at the First Nazarene Church on Thompson Boulevard.

More than 19,300 people who live in the 21st Congressional District have already cast their ballots for election day, and as many as 24,199 could eventually be returned, representing 6 percent of all active voters, according to my count.

The 19,300 number is very preliminary. Expect it to rise as county Boards of Elections start filing their absentees. There's a chance that it will be awhile before we know who won the 21st Congressional District race. The race was only 2,000 votes apart last time around. If it's that close on election night and there are more than 20,000 absentees left to be counted, we'll have to make a game-time decision on making a call in the Bill Owens-Matt Doheny race.

I was the 132nd voter in my precinct today (I voted in the presidential election, which I did not cover, but not any of the local elections, which I have). I was the 218th person to put a ballot in the machine. I voted at the First Nazarene Church on Thompson Boulevard, where I play rec league basketball every Wednesday.

We might have to move some furniture around for our game tomorrow night.

Election officials have told me that there's a steady stream of voters today, and turnout might be up over 2008, but it's too early to tell. It's certainly going to eclipse the number of people who voted in 2009 and 2010.

Keep in mind that with only a few more waves of envelopes arriving, the absentee total will be roughly equal to the total turnout for any of the three primaries that New York held this year.

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